SOLAR_CYCLE - DX news and calendar
DX news and calendar: SOLAR_CYCLE
Added/updated
August 5, 2021
Callsign(s) SOLAR_CYCLE   
Start-end dates Unknown
Utilities Tracking & stats          Recent spots          DX Atlas          Propagation calculator 
DXCC
CQ zone
Planned modes Not especified
Planned bands 160 m, 80 m, 60 m, 40 m, 30 m, 20 m, 17 m, 15 m, 12 m, 10 m, 6 m
Source OPDX & DX-World           Tags: Information

Information

Update August 5, 2021: A revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25 from the NASA High Altitude Observatory based at the University Of Colorado.

The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for calculating Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference, Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If this prediction holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6 Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings ± 9 months from Solar Max.

Ricky Egeland is a participating member in the group headed up by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon that published a paper 9 months ago outlining the existence of magnetic bands within the Sun that governs the Sunspot and Hale Cycles. At the time of its publishing, the paper went on to predict the peak of Solar Cycle 25 could be as high Solar cycle 21. Today's released is a revised prediction based upon data observed since the original paper was published. To be sure we are still in early days.

The Solar Rotation Cycle as marked by Sunspot Activity was established on April 19, 2021, so we are only 90 Days into actually observing Cycle 25 Activity. It is now agreed the dramatic run-up in Sunspot Activity we experienced late Last Fall while tied to Cycle 25 was an outlier. When asked directly about whether they can declare if the Terminator Event they wrote about in the Fall 2020 Paper has occurred Scott McIntosh stated: "We can't be sure just yet but we are very very close". It also should be noted that while it has been over a year since the sun produced a Cycle 24 Region with a Sunspot worthy of a NASA Classification the Sun has been steadily producing Spotless SC 24 Active Regions the last of which formed right on the Solar Equator at N00-W54 on July 24,2021 as recorded by Jan Alvestad's Solar Terrestrial Activity Report Website. These Active Regions being part of a Solarcycle in its final stages of existence produce no spots and only last for a few hours before they dissipate away. The previous SC24 Active Region formed on June 28, 2021. Once the SC24 active regions cease forming Solar Cycle 25 will take off in earnest.

Bob Marston AA6XE


(Sudden Increase, As We Approach the CQWW CW DX Contest). Frank, W3LPL, posted the following (on November 26th) for the contesters on some interesting details about Solar Cycle 25 [edited]:

Sunspot activity has increased dramatically over the last two months. Most days this month have had multiple and more active sunspots resulting in the solar flux index exceeding 100 for the first time since September 2017. SFI is likely to remain above 100 during the CQWW CW DX Contest and remain at 90 or above for at least another week.

But recall that both the sunspot number and the 2800 MHz solar flux index are proxies for the the actual source of F layer ionization that cannot be observed on the surface of the Earth: extreme ultraviolet radiation

We can't yet determine if this is a short term surge or a sustained increase in sunspot activity. We'll have a better understanding in about six months.

The first year of increased sunspot activity is a sweet spot in the solar cycle because:

- increased extreme ultraviolet radiation starts to open the 10 meter band, makes 15 meters more reliable including more frequent JA and long path openings keeps 20 meters open later into the night and opens it well before sunrise keeps the MUF into Europe above 7 MHz during most or all of the night

- coronal hole high speed streams that cause elevated K indices during the declining years of the solar cycle and during solar minimum are now less frequent and not as strong, keeping the K index consistently low for about the next year.

- fast coronal mass ejections (fast CMEs) that cause much more severe and more frequent geomagnetic disturbances won't start to occur regularly until at least late next year.

- daytime D layer absorption that affects 160 and 80 meters much more severely than 40 meters hasn't yet begun to increase significantly as it will when we get closer to solar maximum

- E layer ionization (not sporadic-E -- that's completely different) hasn't yet begun to increase significantly. As we get closer to solar maximum consistently higher E-layer MUFs will blanket 40 meter DX openings until later in the afternoon.

Enjoy the ride especially this weekend in the CQWW CW DX Contest... 73 , Frank W3LPL
 



Go to the DX calendar

    

 
Share: Twitter   Facebook   Home page Site map Radio Sherlock search engine Terms of service  Privacy  Cookies